Homes selling above list price fall to 3-year low

As the housing market returned to normal after a frenzied couple of years marked by intense bidding wars in many markets, the smallest share of homes sold for above their list price last year than in any year since 2016.

Home value growth slowed throughout 2019 to a rate more in line with historic norms than the elevated levels of the past few years. About a fifth (19.9%) of U.S. homes sold for more than their asking price in 2019, according to a new Zillow analysis, down from 21.5% the previous year. This drop breaks a streak of four consecutive years in which a greater share of homes sold above list price as the market picked up steam.

But inventory in the U.S. is incredibly tight and this scarcity is a main driver of bidding wars that drive up sale prices, so we could be headed for a reversal in 2020. That’s good news for prospective sellers, but means buyers will need to be on the ball this shopping season. Monthly trends in 2019 show that the share of homes sold above list was greatest in the fall months – right as inventory was approaching its low point – which is typically a slower time of year for the housing market after home shopping season wraps up.

“The
housing market took a breather in 2019, after years of red-hot
sellers’ markets,” said Zillow Economist Jeff Tucker. “Many
sellers were caught off-guard by the changing conditions, and ended
up accepting offers at or below list prices that were dreamed up
during the height of the frenzy. But the cloudy outlook for sellers
began to clear late in the year after inventory buildups in several
cities were whittled back down to record lows, suggesting a hot
spring sellers’ market is around the corner. Sellers hoping to cash
in and upgrade should proceed with care, however, as the same tight
conditions that may drive up their sale price will be facing them on
the other side when they look to buy their next home.”

Despite
seeing recent year-over-year drops in home value, San Francisco
(48.6% of homes sold above list) and San Jose (38.8%) top the list of
metros with the greatest share of homes sold above list among the top
35 – a sign of just how competitive the Bay Area remains even after
cooling significantly in 2019. Boston (34.7%), Minneapolis-St. Paul
(34.3%) and Seattle (31.2%) have the next-highest shares.

The
coolest top-35 markets were Miami (8.9% of homes sold above asking),
Las Vegas (12.6%) and Tampa (13.3%). Las Vegas fell from 26.8% a year
ago, which was the 12th-highest share in the country. Only San Jose’s
share decreased by more, from 63.6% to 38.8%.

The
median amount above asking that sellers realized was $5,100, down
from $5,500 in 2018 and the lowest since at least 2011. San Jose
($41,000 above asking) and San Francisco ($37,500) lead the country
in this measure as well, a product of both intense competition among
buyers and the high prices of real estate there making these figures
relatively in line. Still, these figures are much lower than a year
ago when San Jose homes typically sold for $101,000 above asking and
those in San Francisco sold for $50,000 above asking.

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